2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

人口城镇化影响房价的中介效应检验

A Test of the Mediating Effect of Population Urbanization on House Price

  • 摘要: 城镇落户限制的逐步取消带来的人口城镇化的推进,必然对“房住不炒”的市场定位和房地产市场的平稳健康带来冲击,因此,探究人口城镇化影响房价的传导机制具有重大的现实意义。文章通过对人口城镇化与商品房价格之间关系进行理论分析和实证研究,发现人口城镇化既会直接影响商品房价格,也会通过城镇居民收入水平作为中介变量对商品房价格产生间接影响,这种间接影响在城镇化的初期会对商品房价格产生向下的作用力。

     

    Abstract: With the gradual abolition of restrictions on settlement in cities and towns, the progress of population urbanization will inevitably have an impact on the market positioning of “no real estate speculation” and the stability and soundness of the real estate market. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to explore the transmission mechanism of population urbanization that affects the price of commercial housing. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research on the relationship between population urbanization and commodity housing prices, this paper finds that population urbanization will not only directly affect commodity housing prices, but also indirectly affect commodity housing prices through the income level of urban residents as an intermediary variable; and the impact will exert a downward force on the price of commercial housing in the early stages of urbanization.

     

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