2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

我国区域经济接力增长格局演化及其影响因素分析

The analysis on evolution and its influencing factors of China's regional economic relay growth pattern

  • 摘要: 文章基于马尔科夫链模型与自然断点法对新世纪以来我国区域接力增长状态进行分析,结果表明:1)我国区域经济接力增长呈现由沿海向内陆,自北方向南方渐次接力的态势。研究期内经济增长速度与发展水平分别形成的中高水平趋同俱乐部,均出现由中西部地区的南北两列纵向带状分布向中南部地区网格面状的分布趋势转变。2)当前处于结构调整阶段的东部沿海与东北地区依靠转型与改革,经济增速逐渐回升,中西部地区以重庆、贵州、安徽、江西等省市为主逐渐成为区域接力增长主体,民族、边疆地区一直处于缓慢增长阶段。3)区域接力增长格局演变是多种因素综合作用的结果。区域资源能源禀赋奠定了接力增长基础,经济发展集散态势逐步调节区域接力增长速度,区域发展机制与空间功能转变推动不同区域接力增长循环链接,三者在国家区域发展战略引导下交互作用共同决定我国未来区域接力增长态势。

     

    Abstract: This article analyzes the status of regional relay growth in China since the new century based on Markov chain model and ArcGIS10.2 platform. The results show the following conclusions: 1) The regional economic relay growth of China shows a trend of gradual succession both from the coast to the inland and from the north to the south. During the study period, the medium-high level convergence clubs, formed respectively by economic growth rate and development level, witnessed the change of distribution whose two column vertical zonal of the central and western regions transforming to the planar grid in the central and southern regions of China. 2) Currently, with the improvement of industrial structure and system mechanism, the economic growth rate of eastern coast and the northeast regions is gradually picking up, though still in the stage of structural adjustment. In the central and western regions, mainly Chongqing, Guizhou, Anhui and Jiangxi, have gradually become the main body of regional relay growth, while ethnic and border areas have been in a slow growth stage. 3) The evolution of regional relay growth pattern comes from the comprehensive action of many factors. Regional resource energy endowment have laid the foundation for relay growth; economic accumulation and proliferation has gradually adjusted the rate of regional relay growth; and regional development mechanism and the spatial function transform promotes the circulation link of the relay growth in different regions. Under the guidance of the national regional development strategy, the interaction of the three factors jointly determines the trend of regional relay growth in China.

     

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