2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

自贸试验区建设对外商投资的溢出效应基于合成控制法的陕西实证

Spillover Effect of Construction of Pilot Free Trade Zone on Foreign Investment: Empirical Study of Shaanxi Province based on Synthetic Control Method

  • 摘要: 中国(陕西)自由贸易试验区作为中国西北唯一的自贸试验区和“一带一路”节点区域,是我国落实向西开放的重要载体和连接国内外自贸区的关键纽带。基于2005—2019 年中国省域平衡面板数据,利用合成控制法测算陕西自贸试验区设立前后外商直接投资的“真实值”与“合成值”之差,评估自贸试验区建设对外商直接投资的溢出效应。研究结果表明:自贸试验区建设对陕西外商直接投资发挥了显著促进作用,排序检验与安慰剂检验证实了结论的稳健性。进一步研究发现,陕西自贸试验区对进出口总额同样存在正向溢出效应。为扩大“示范先行,辐射带动”的力度与范围,陕西自贸试验区应深入对接国际商贸通行规则,增强引资政策的吸引力和透明度;完善外商引资配套制度,加大制度创新力度和范围;重视向内开放合作,加强辐射带动效果。

     

    Abstract: China (Shaanxi) Pilot Free Trade Zone, as the only pilot free trade zone in northwest China and a node area of the “Belt and Road Initiative”, is an important carrier for China to open up to the west and a key link connecting domestic and foreign free trade zones. Based on the balanced panel data of China’s provinces from 2005 to 2019, the synthetic control method is used to calculate the difference between the “true value” and the “synthetic value” of foreign direct investment before and after the establishment of Shaanxi Pilot Free Trade Zone, and to evaluate its spillover effect to Shaanxi foreign direct investment. The results show that the Pilot Free Trade Zone plays a significant role in promoting foreign investment in Shaanxi, and the ranking test and placebo test confirm the robustness of the conclusion. Further research finds that Shaanxi pilot Free Trade Zone also has a positive spillover effect on the total import and export volume. In order to expand the intensity and scope of “exemplification first, radiation driven”, Shaanxi Pilot Free Trade Zone should deeply connect with the general rules of international commerce and trade, and enhance the attractiveness and transparency of the investment policy; improve the supporting system for foreign investment introduction, and effectively eliminate the shortcomings of the system; pay attention to inward open cooperation and strengthen the effect of radiation.

     

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