2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

数字基础设施赋能县域经济发展韧性基于山东136个县域经济的实证研究

Empowering County Economy Development Resilience with Digital Infrastructure: An Empirical Study Based on 136 County Economies in Shandong Province

  • 摘要: 县域经济作为构成整个国民经济的基本空间单元,提升其韧性对于促进整个地区经济的高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。文章基于山东136个县域2000—2021年的面板数据,实证研究了数字基础设施对山东县域经济发展韧性的影响。结果表明:(1)数字基础设施对山东县域经济发展韧性具有显著的促进效应,该结论在经过内生性检验、替换变量、剔除异常值等情形下依然成立。并且,其效应会受到经济区划、城市等级、资源禀赋,以及是否为“智慧城市”试点等特质的影响,其中在省会经济圈、非资源型城市、大规模城市及非“智慧城市”试点区域效果更加明显,形成了以“济南—青岛”管辖县域为双核心,其他县域为外围的“核心—边缘”结构。(2)促进金融发展、提升产业升级、控制污染强度是数字基础设施促进经济发展韧性的主要路径:一方面,数字基础设施通过促进金融发展优化金融资源配置提升经济韧性;另一方面,数字基础设施通过提升产业升级,控制污染强度可有效提升社会创新力与经济的可持续性进而增强地区经济韧性。(3)除数字基础设施外,相关数字政策的实施,特别是“智慧城市”的开展对经济发展韧性也具有显著的提升作用。(4)从空间效应来看,数字基础设施对经济发展韧性的影响具有正向的“溢出效应”,不仅对本地区影响显著,而且通过数字要素的扩散还会影响邻近地区,具体表现为“空间互补”。

     

    Abstract: Amid escalating global economic uncertainty and increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics, the resilience of county economies stands crucial as foundational units within national economic frameworks. This study utilizes panel data spanning from 2000 to 2021 across 136 counties in Shandong Province to empirically examine the impact of digital infrastructure on county-level economic resilience. Findings highlight several key outcomes: (1) Digital infrastructure significantly enhances economic resilience across Shandong's counties, findings robust to rigorous tests for endogeneity, variable substitution, and outlier removal. Effects vary based on economic zoning, city size, resource endowment, and participation in “smart city” initiatives, with pronounced impacts observed in provincial capital regions, non-resource-based cities, large urban centers, and areas not designated as “smart city” pilots, forming a core-periphery structure with counties under the jurisdiction of “Jinan-Qingdao” as dual economic cores. (2) Main pathways through which digital infrastructure enhances resilience include industrial upgrading and pollution control, facilitating financial development and optimizing resource allocation. Additionally, digital infrastructure fosters social innovation and economic sustainability, contributing to regional economic resilience. (3) Complementary to physical infrastructure, effective implementation of digital policies, notably advancements in “smart cities,” significantly bolsters economic resilience. (4) Spatially, digital infrastructure exhibits positive spillover effects, enhancing local resilience and benefiting neighboring areas through the diffusion of digital technologies, fostering spatial complementarity.

     

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