Abstract:
Purpose/Significance Petroleum plays an important role in economic growth and social development. As a "barometer" of the macro economy, the stock market plays an important role in economic forecasting and value discovery. Therefore, the use of econometric methods to analyze the causal relationship between the BRICS stock market and international oil prices has a higher research value and significance.
Method/process The paper uses the asymmetric Granger causality test method and daily frequency data from 2015-01-05 to 2017-09-13 to study the relationship between oil prices and the BRICS countries' stock markets.
Result/Conclusion The results show that: In the BRICS countries, Brazil and China are in the same situation, neither stock market has a causal relationship with oil prices. Russia, India, and South Africa have similar situations. The rate of change of international oil prices can be their national stock market return. Rate forecasts provide information, while South African stock returns can provide information on the rate of change of international oil prices. Overall, oil has a greater impact on the country's stock market, and the stock market can hardly affect the price of oil. This is basically in line with the actual situation at this stage. This shows that for a long time now and in the future, oil still has a great impact on the economy.