1673-159X

CN 51-1686/N

基于BP神经网络的高速公路旅行时间预测模型

Travel Time Prediction Model for Freeways Based on BP Neural Network

  • 摘要: 针对目前高速公路检测器铺设密度较低导致预测路段旅行时间准确率不高的问题,利用联网收费数据建立旅行时间预测模型,用于预测路段旅行时间。首先根据收费数据计算出路段旅行时间,对其进行修正后建立真实旅行时间集,然后利用随机森林算法从构建的旅行时间备选变量中筛选出重要变量,以此作为输入建立基于BP神经网络的旅行时间预测模型,最后基于重庆市某高速公路特定通道部分路段的实际数据进行模型验证。结果表明:使用从备选变量中筛选出的9 个重要变量构建的模型能在各种时段下有效且准确地预测出路段的旅行时间,实验路段a和 b在整个研究时段内的平均绝对误差百分率分别为7.02%和5.76%。本文的研究结果能为交通管理者提供决策依据。

     

    Abstract: To overcome the difficulties caused by the low density of vehicle detectors in freeways when predicting the travel time, this study has developed a travel time prediction model for freeways by using toll data. First, a real travel time dataset was established by extracting and modifying the toll data. Then the Random Forest algorithm was used to select the significant variables from the candidate variables, and the BP neural network was used to develop the travel time prediction model. The model was verified by the certain segments of Chongqing freeway, and the experiment results show that the model developed with selected nine variables could work to predict travel time effectively and accurately in various periods; the MAPE for the whole study period in two experimental segments was 7.02% and 5.76% respectively. This research could provide traffic managers a reference while making the management measures.

     

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