1673-159X

CN 51-1686/N

不确定路网条件下出行路径选择模型对比分析

Comparison and Analysis of Route Choice Models under Uncertain Road Network Condition

  • 摘要: 对出行路径选择模型作了简要解析, 进而分别基于“期望效用理论”和“前景理论”, 建立不确定路网条件下的出行者出行路径选择模型, 并结合实际算例及实证调查, 对基于两种理论模型得出的结果做出对比分析, 结果表明“前景理论”的研究思路更适合描述风险状况以及不确定条件下的个人出行决策行为。

     

    Abstract: With the national transportation scholars' further researches on the travel route choice, theoretical models are developed based on expected utility theory and prospect theory respectively.In the paper, the authors firstly give a brief analysis about the route choice models, and then establish the travel route choice models under uncertainty based on the expected utility theory and prospect theory respectively.With practical examples and empirical investigation, comparative analysis about the results based on the two theoretical models is conducted.And the shortcomings of the former are pointed out.The result obtained show that the latter one, the search idea of prospect theory is more appropriate to describing the personal travel decision behavior under the risk situation and uncertainty.

     

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