1672-8505

CN 51-1675/C

贸易摩擦背景下“保险+期货”模式的管理创新与推广应用基于关联增强相对估值AERV模型

"Insurance + Futures" Model: Management Innovation and Promotion Strategies in the Context of Trade FrictionsBased on the Associated Enhanced Relative Value (AERV) Model

  • 摘要: 近年来,国际经贸环境不确定性加剧,中美贸易摩擦引发的农产品关税调整和大宗商品价格波动风险传导,进一步凸显了农业风险管理的紧迫性。文章提出了一种基于相关上市品种的隐含波动率预测模型,即关联增强相对估值AERV(Associated Enhanced Relative Value)模型。实证分析表明,该模型通过引入与目标品种相关的其他金融工具的数据,提升了对目标品种隐含波动率的预测精度,为期权定价和风险管理提供了更加可靠的支持。基于此模型,文章开发了一套自动化场外期权对冲系统,用于指导和执行Delta对冲操作,以实现期权市场中的风险分散和控制。此外,结合“保险+期货”模式,文章探讨了该模式在农业风险管理中的应用,展示了期货市场和农业保险的联动效果,尤其在稳定农民收入和减少价格波动带来的风险方面具有显著作用。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, increasing uncertainty in the global economic and trade environment—driven in particular by agricultural tariff adjustments and bulk commodity price fluctuations resulting from Sino-U.S. trade frictions—has significantly amplified the need for more effective agricultural risk management strategies. This study proposes a new model for predicting implied volatility based on related listed commodities, termed the Associated Enhanced Relative Value (AERV) model. Empirical results show that by integrating data from financial instruments correlated with the target commodity, the AERV model significantly improves the accuracy of implied volatility predictions. This provides more reliable support for option pricing and risk mitigation. Building on this model, we design an automated over-the-counter (OTC) options hedging system capable of guiding and executing Delta hedging operations, effectively enhancing risk diversification and control in the options market. Additionally, this paper explores the integration of the “Insurance + Futures” model into agricultural risk management, highlighting the complementary roles of futures markets and agricultural insurance. The findings indicate that the model plays a vital role in stabilizing farmers’ incomes and mitigating risks associated with price volatility.

     

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