1672-8505

CN 51-1675/C

技术创新、城镇化与经济增长的互动机理与实证分析

Technological Innovation, Urbanization and Economic Growth: Interactive Mechanism and Empirical Test

  • 摘要: 文章利用我国1995—2015年的经济数据,通过构建结构向量自回归模型(SVAR模型),运用协整检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法深入探究了技术创新、城镇化与经济增长之间的互动关系。研究发现:三个变量之间存在长期均衡关系;技术创新与经济增长、城镇化已形成良性互动机制;经济增长对城镇化具有显著推动作用,而城镇化对经济增长的推动作用具有长期滞后性;技术创新对经济增长的影响大于城镇化对经济增长的影响。

     

    Abstract: Based on China's economic data from 1995 to 2015, this paper studies the dynamic relationship among technological innovation, urbanization and economic growth by using co-integration test, impulse response and variance decomposition with SVAR model. The study finds that a long-term equilibrium relationship exists among the three variables; technological innovation, economic growth and urbanization have formed a benign interaction mechanism; economic growth has a significant pulling effect on urbanization, while urbanization has a long-term lagging effect on economic growth; the impact of technological innovation on economic growth is greater than the impact of urbanization on economic growth.

     

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