1672-8505

CN 51-1675/C

刘越, 张榆新. 乡村振兴背景下农地流转、城镇化与城乡收入差距的动态关系研究——基于PVAR模型的实证分析[J]. 西华大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2019, 38(4): 100-112. DOI: 10.19642/j.issn.1672-8505.2019.04.012
引用本文: 刘越, 张榆新. 乡村振兴背景下农地流转、城镇化与城乡收入差距的动态关系研究——基于PVAR模型的实证分析[J]. 西华大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2019, 38(4): 100-112. DOI: 10.19642/j.issn.1672-8505.2019.04.012
LIU Yue, ZHANG Yu-xin. Study on the Dynamic Relationships between Agricultural Land Circulation, Urbanization and Urban-Rural Income Gap under the Background of Rural Revitalization:An Empirical Study Based on PVAR Model[J]. Journal of Xihua University (Philosophy & Social Sciences) , 2019, 38(4): 100-112. DOI: 10.19642/j.issn.1672-8505.2019.04.012
Citation: LIU Yue, ZHANG Yu-xin. Study on the Dynamic Relationships between Agricultural Land Circulation, Urbanization and Urban-Rural Income Gap under the Background of Rural Revitalization:An Empirical Study Based on PVAR Model[J]. Journal of Xihua University (Philosophy & Social Sciences) , 2019, 38(4): 100-112. DOI: 10.19642/j.issn.1672-8505.2019.04.012

乡村振兴背景下农地流转、城镇化与城乡收入差距的动态关系研究——基于PVAR模型的实证分析

Study on the Dynamic Relationships between Agricultural Land Circulation, Urbanization and Urban-Rural Income Gap under the Background of Rural Revitalization:An Empirical Study Based on PVAR Model

  • 摘要: 乡村振兴战略是实现全体人民共同富裕的必然选择,是未来有效解决“三农”问题的有力抓手。为了探寻农地流转、城镇化与城乡收入差距三者之间的动态关系,加快乡村振兴进程,切实增加农民收入,实现城乡协调发展,利用2000—2017年全国省级面板数据分全国和东中西部地区构建了PVAR模型。通过对模型的估计、脉冲响应分析和方差分解发现,全国和东部地区,农地流转和城镇化之间呈正向相互促进的关系,同时都能促进城乡收入差距的缩小;反过来城乡收入差距的缩小也能促进农地流转,但却不利于城镇化发展。中部地区,从长期看农地流转可以促进城镇化发展,但却不利于城乡收入差距的缩小;城镇化发展对农地流转影响不明显,但能够显著抑制城乡收入差距的扩大;城乡收入差距的扩大,尽管长期看来在促进农地流转上效果不是很明显,却有利于城镇化发展。西部地区,农地流转对城镇化和城乡收入差距的影响不是很明显,城镇化对农地流转的影响也不是很显著,但从长期来看,城镇化有利于城乡收入差距的缩小;城乡收入差距对农地流转和城镇化的影响也太显著。在此基础上提出了一些有针对性、易于操作的对策建议以实现三者之间的良性互动,加快乡村振兴进程,增加农民收入,缩小城乡收入差距,实现城乡协调发展,进一步提升我国经济发展质量。

     

    Abstract: The rural revitalization strategy is an inevitable choice for realizing common prosperity of all people, and it is a powerful starting point to effectively solve the problems of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" in the future.This paper constructs the PVAR model according to the national provincial panel data of 2000—2017 based on the whole country, and eastern, central and western areas respectively, aiming to explore the dynamic relationships between agricultural land circulation, urbanization and urban-rural income gap, accelerate the process of rural revitalization, earnestly increase the income of farmers, and achieve balanced development between urban and rural areas. Through the estimation of the model, the impulse response analysis and the variance decomposition, it finds that a positive relationship exists between agricultural land circulation and urbanization in eastern areas and the whole country, and it can narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas. The narrowing of the income gap between urban and rural areas can also promote the transfer of agricultural land, but it is not conducive to the development of urbanization. In central areas, the circulation of agricultural land is able to promote the development of urbanization in the long run, but it is not conducive to the narrowing of urban-rural income gap. The development of urbanization has little effect on agricultural land circulation, but can significantly inhibit the expansion of urban-rural income gap. The widening gap only slightly promotes the flow of agricultural land in the long run, but significantly promotes the development of urbanization.In western areas, the impact of agricultural land transfer on urbanization and urban-rural income gap is not significant, nor is the impact of urbanization on farmland circulation.But in the long run, urbanization is conducive to the narrowing of urban-rural income gap.The impact of the gap on farmland circulation and urbanization is not great. On this basis, this paper puts forward some targeted and easy to operate policy recommendations to achieve the benign interaction between the three, accelerate rural revitalization, increase rural incomes, narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, and achieve balanced development between urban and rural areas, and enhance further the quality of China's economic development.

     

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